PYONGYANG INTERLUDE

I would like to think that most in the US administration are upset with N Korea's nuclear test mainly because they see it as another instance of the world defying their cherished monopoly and authority on one matter or the other, not so much because it poses a real threat. What do you expect when one country still has thousands of functional warheads, and strenuously tries to keep other nations from developing a weapons program, all the while having a sinking general image in the world? I am not saying that N Korea did a good thing by doing a test, and I detest their totalitarian regime as much as anyone else, but such things really are inevitable with the current scenario. I would not be surprised if Iran does the same thing tomorrow. Building a crude nuclear weapon is not very difficult now; on the other hand, it does take a lot of testing to fine tune its yield and efficiency, not to mention deliverability. So we should not fear N Korea's nuclear test and think that means that a nuclear attack by N Koreans on US or any other soil is imminent. The US, thanks to many decades of cold war testing and development, still has a nuclear arsenal that is second to none in quality and number. No country would still dare to attack the US with nuclear weapons. However, unless the US takes a conciliatory stance in many of its foreign policy matters, I don't see how nation such as N Korea and Iran can not go ahead with at least preliminary weapons development.

Reports about the exact yield of the bomb are still not certain I believe. Estimates ranged from a yield of 500 tons (which is lousy) to about 15 kilotons (respectable but one which has long since been spectacularly surpassed). The real threat, if any, comes from the existence of multiple reentry vehicles and ballistic missiles equipped to carry thermonuclear warheads, and that threat does not exist with either N Korea or with Iran (It might exist with China on the other hand- again, what does it actually mean?).

What the US really could realistically fear and pay attention to, as Graham Allison says in his book Nuclear Terrorism, is a terrorist attack on its soil with a dirty bomb. Statesmen, even totalitarian ones like Kim, are rational to a large extent, as far as the continuity of their regime is concerned. Jihadis wearing red bandanas are always a different kettle of fish. It's those fish which the US and other nations should try to keep at bay, and capture.

As for N Korea, now with even China galled over its ally's behaviour, I don't know how long it can keep going in the face of possible economic collapse. But then again, look at Cuba...